I plugged all WASDE corn information, together with PCE (for inflation adjustment) right into a multivariate regression match towards following month common futures costs, since 2010. Mannequin output is at $6.12~. statistical match particulars, graphs can be found right here.
It feels a bit too excessive, provided that I believe the chance distribution for crop outcomes subsequent season is not skewed towards one other shortfall. Or am I lacking some sort of important difficulty right here?