Brent Crude Oil Fundamentals:
- OPEC to probably downgrade optimistic 2022 oil demand forecast on Monday
- Results of Hurricane Ida on oil costs stays modest
- China auctions oil reserves to shelter native refining companies from growing uncooked materials costs
OPEC Set to Downgrade Optimistic Oil Demand Forecast in Gentle of Delta Dangers
OPEC will probably trim its forecast for 2022 world oil demand in mild of accelerating challenges across the unfold of the Delta variant. OPEC, the Worldwide Power Company (IEA) and the Power Info Administration (EIA) all produced forecasts for the rest 2021 and all of 2022 with OPEC essentially the most optimistic on each estimates.
supply IEA,EIA, OPEC+ sources
Earlier this week OPEC determined to extend output by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) for the month of October, in step with its gradual plan to reintroduce provide into worldwide markets after drastically withdrawing provide initially of the pandemic.
For OPEC’s 2021 oil demand development forecast to be met, world demand must common round 100 million bpd within the remaining quarter of this yr – nearly 1 million bpd greater than the IEA’s fourth-quarter projection.
Value Results of Hurricane IDA Stay Modest
Current EIA figures recommend a much less resilient restoration as US inventories had been lowered by 1.529M as much as September 3rd versus the anticipated determine of -4.612M.
Understandably, weekly area manufacturing fell to 10,000k from 11,500k over the interval when Hurricane Ida-related disruptions had been skilled.
Weekly US Subject Manufacturing of Crude Oil
Oil Costs managed to stay comparatively contained and largely traded inside the weekly vary regardless of current developments.
It stays to be seen whether or not subsequent weeks OPEC revision, ought to it happen, will lead to lowered oil costs or preserve the present sideway course. Because the week attracts to an in depth we see oil costs supported by the important thing 71.20 stage of help however struggling to type a topside breakout above trendline resistance. This will lead to continued consolidation, within the absence of any exterior drivers or shocks.
Each day Crude Oil Chart
Chart ready by Richard Snow, IG
China Auctions Oil Reserves
Beijing’s reserves administration talked about on Tuesday that China plans its first public public sale of state-owned crude reserves to home refiners. The auctions are set to happen in phases in an try to higher stabilize home provide and demand thus guaranteeing the nation’s power safety.
Whereas the benchmark Brent crude costs are round 40% greater this yr, China’s worldwide crude futures (ISCc1) are up 50%. Particulars are scarce as there was no point out of quantity or timeframes of the auctions.
Chinese language Worldwide Crude Futures (ISCc1) Over The Final Yr
Chart ready by Richard Snow, Supply: Refinitiv
— Written by Richard Snow for DailyFX.com
Contact and comply with Richard on Twitter: @RichardSnowFX